Read this interesting analysis by my friend Patrick, although I disagree with him.
My feeling is that Sharon's new party is going to flop for a number of reasons:
1) The burden of corruption is hanging from the neck of the Sharon family with the conviction of his son Omri.
2) Many Israelis tend to be loyal to the parties that they traditionally vote for as one who is loyal to the brand of the toothpaste that he uses. These kind of people, that received "Likud" with their mother's milk, will continue to vote Likud. The same holds true for the ever aging constituancy that votes Labor.
3) As the lies that were behind the "disengagement" become clear to more and more Israelis, Sharon and those who join him will receive less and less support. Those who support Sharon will come from the left side of the Israeli political map. Most of the support for his new party will come from Labor and Meretz, and not from the traditional Likud constituency.
My guess is that the next Prime Minister of Israel will be the head of the Likud party, and that Ariel Sharon will have a lot of time to spend with his grandchildren. Time will tell if I am correct.