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Monday, November 21, 2005

Sharon's Retirement March

Read this interesting analysis by my friend Patrick, although I disagree with him.

My feeling is that Sharon's new party is going to flop for a number of reasons:

1) The burden of corruption is hanging from the neck of the Sharon family with the conviction of his son Omri.

2) Many Israelis tend to be loyal to the parties that they traditionally vote for as one who is loyal to the brand of the toothpaste that he uses. These kind of people, that received "Likud" with their mother's milk, will continue to vote Likud. The same holds true for the ever aging constituancy that votes Labor.

3) As the lies that were behind the "disengagement" become clear to more and more Israelis, Sharon and those who join him will receive less and less support. Those who support Sharon will come from the left side of the Israeli political map. Most of the support for his new party will come from Labor and Meretz, and not from the traditional Likud constituency.

My guess is that the next Prime Minister of Israel will be the head of the Likud party, and that Ariel Sharon will have a lot of time to spend with his grandchildren. Time will tell if I am correct.

7 comments:

The real me said...

Sounds good, let him take Olmret with him as well.

Cosmic X said...

I would mention the names of a few more politicians, but it would be a waste of bandwidth.

Ze'ev said...

I think the 1st thing the Lkud should do is pass a pary law that anyone who bolted with Sharon will not be welcome back in the Likud when Sharon's party flops, whether in the upcoming elections or the next...

Then, we would all be winners...

Here's hoping that Mofaz, Livnat and Shalom go with him...

Avi Green said...

Good points. The corruption charges against Omri pose a serious problem, and the Likud members who're going with Sharon are basically nobodies. What talents do they have to offer in security and finance? All these years, they have very little to show in any such field, if at all. To form a party successfully, you need people with inspiring ideas, and the people leaving the Likud along with Sharon have practically none of that, nor do they have any clear ideological standings.

patrickafir said...

heh Before I posted, I came over here to see if you'd posted anything on it, because I wanted a viewpoint from the inside. (You were probably asleep, though!)

No matter what happens, it's pretty hard sometimes for the gentile Zionist to sit on his hands and just have to watch and wait as Israel's fate continues to hang in the balance.

Of all the democracies in the world, Israel is the one whose vote means the most.

DAAT Y said...

FRM YOUR BLOG TO GOD'S EARS.

Anonymous said...

HaKushi asa et shelo, haKushi yachol lalechet - the left no longer has any use for Sharon, he is now a threat to Peretz.

Watch the media knives come out.

That is why Sharon's line is 'I must leave the Likud so I make daring steps' - he's winking at the Left.

But they will flush him down the toilet now. Many of them are learning to choke down their racism as it dawns on them that Peretz can split the Likud base because he's "one of them".

I doubt it will work that way, though. Here's hoping all the weasels climb on the Peres-Sharon raft - and sink.

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